Unofficial tallies in Irish election suggest some trouble for big figures

The tallies, carried out by party activists and volunteers as boxes opened at 9am, give a more localised sense of the potential result than Friday night’s exit poll.

The largest opposition party Sinn Fein held 21.1% of first-preference votes, narrowly ahead of current coalition partners Fine Gael and Fianna Fail at 21% and 19.5% respectively, according to the Ipsos B&A Exit Poll commissioned by RTE, The Irish Times, TG4 and Trinity College Dublin.

With boxes now open, the votes must first be sorted before counting formally begins in a process which could last days because of Ireland’s complex system of proportional representation with a single transferable vote (PR-STV), where candidates are ranked by preference.

It means the voting slips need to be counted several times, an undertaking which can last days.

The inconclusive early indications have turned the focus of speculation to the tricky arithmetic of government formation, as the country’s several smaller parties and many independents potentially jockey for a place in government.

First counts which carry the potential for the election of new members of parliament, known as TDs in Ireland, are expected later on Saturday.

Most of the leaders of the main parties, including Taoiseach and Fine Gael leader Simon Harris, deputy premier and Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin, and Sinn Fein president Mary Lou McDonald seem set to be reelected.

However, Green leader Roderic O’Gorman, who is the head of the junior partner in the outgoing coalition, is in with a fight to hold on to his seat.

He has conceded that a number of his colleagues will not retain their seats, amid the broader potential for a wipeout.

That would be a repeat of history given the last time the Greens exited a coalition – in 2011, the party lost all six of its TDs.

Mr O’Gorman, the outgoing integration minister, said on Saturday: “It’s clear the Green Party has not had a good day.”

Catherine Martin, the Green party’s former deputy leader and outgoing media minister, is also at risk of failing to be reelected.

The tallies suggest potential trouble for Fianna Fail in Wicklow, where the party’s only candidate in the constituency Health Minister Stephen Donnelly is considered to have a battle ahead, with the risk of losing his seat.

Meanwhile, there is significant focus on independent candidate Gerard Hutch, who is sitting on fourth in the four-seat constituency of Dublin Central after the completion of the unofficial tallies there.

Last spring, Mr Hutch was found not guilty by the non-jury Special Criminal Court of the murder of David Byrne, in one of the first deadly attacks of the Hutch-Kinahan gangland feud.

Mr Byrne, 33, died after being shot six times at a crowded boxing weigh-in event at the Regency Hotel in February 2016.

A Special Criminal Court judge described Mr Hutch, 61, as the patriarchal figurehead of the Hutch criminal organisation and said he had engaged in “serious criminal conduct”.

The constituency will be closely watched as other hopefuls wait to see if transfers from eliminated candidates may eventually rule him out of contention.

In the constituency of Louth, the much-criticised selection of John McGahon has appeared not to have paid off for Fine Gael.

The party’s campaign was beset by questioning over footage entering the public domain of the candidate engaged in a fight outside a pub in 2018.

The Social Democrats have a strong chance of emerging as the largest of the smallest parties. Leader Holly Cairns announced the birth of her baby girl on polling day.

Elsewhere, Labour and Sinn Fein are eyeing potential gains.

Despite the apparent rise of the Social Democrats, it initially appeared unlikely that only one smaller party would be needed to act as a kingmaker to seal a majority.

It has turned eyes to the possibility that a coalition could potentially be formed with four parties or with the use of independents – considered by some to be a recipe for unstable governance.

The leaders of Fianna Fail and Fine Gael have consistently ruled out entering into a coalition with Sinn Fein, citing substantial differences on policy.

As such, the opposition party faces a much more challenging route to forming a government.

However, long-held and ostensibly insurmountable political differences have eroded as recently as 2020, when the general election also delivered an inconclusive result.

Then, Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, two parties forged from opposing sides of Ireland’s Civil War of the 1920s, agreed to set aside almost a century of animosity and share power for the outgoing coalition, after similar pledges against forming coalitions had been made before the final results.

In that election, Sinn Fein won the popular vote but a failure to run enough candidates meant it did not secure sufficient seats in the Dail to give it a realistic chance of forming a government.

Sinn Fein’s director of elections said on Saturday that another Fine Gael and Fianna Fail government would be a “nightmare scenario”.

Matt Carthy told RTE: “We will try and do everything in our power to create a government that doesn’t include Fianna Fail and Fine Gael.”

The “encouraging” exit poll suggests Fine Gael has “held ground”, according to the party’s general secretary John Carroll.

Before voting began, Fianna Fail deputy leader Jack Chambers said the race remained “too close to call”.

Asked if there is now no difference between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, Mr Chambers told RTE radio that the parties had worked well together in government but added: “There were very clear differences in policies (during the campaign).”

A key factor in determining the final result of any Irish election is the transfer of votes based on a voter’s preferences, a key part of PR-STV.

It is through this system that candidates can still claim a seat after insufficient votes following a first count.

More than 3.6 million people were registered to vote in the election to choose their representatives across 43 constituencies, in a campaign that has focused on the country’s housing crisis, the response to a dramatic increase in immigration, and economic management for the cost of living, as well as potential future trade shocks.

There are a total of 174 seats in the country’s parliament to be filled, more than ever before.

As the Ceann Comhairle, the speaker of the house, is automatically returned, 173 seats will be filled in the counting process.