UN envoy: Myanmar faces possibility of major civil war

Christine Schraner Burgener did not specify what action she considered significant, but she painted a dire picture of the military crackdown and told the council in a virtual briefing that Myanmar “is on the verge of spiralling into a failed state”.

“This could happen under our watch,” she said in a presentation obtained by The Associated Press, “and failure to prevent further escalation of atrocities will cost the world so much more in the longer term than investing now in prevention, especially by Myanmar’s neighbours and the wider region.”

Ms Schraner Burgener urged the council “to consider all available tools to take collective action” and do what the people of Myanmar deserve — “prevent a multidimensional catastrophe in the heart of Asia”.

A proposed press statement from the council was not issued after the meeting because China, a close neighbour of Myanmar, asked for additional time to consider its contents, likely until Thursday, several council diplomats said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Chinese Ambassador Zhang Jun warned the council in remarks distributed by China’s UN Mission that “one-sided pressure and calling for sanctions or other coercive measures will only aggravate tension and confrontation and further complicate the situation, which is by no means constructive”.

He urged all parties to find a solution through dialogue that de-escalates the situation and continues “to advance the democratic transition in Myanmar,” warning that if the country slides “into protracted turbulence, it will be a disaster for Myanmar and the region as a whole”.

The coup reversed years of slow progress toward democracy in Myanmar, which for five decades had languished under strict military rule that led to international isolation and sanctions. As the generals loosened their grip, culminating in Aung San Suu Kyi’s rise to leadership in 2015 elections, the international community responded by lifting most sanctions and pouring investment into the country.

In the virtual meeting, Ms Schraner Burgener denounced the killing and arrest of unarmed protesters seeking to restore democracy. She cited figures from Myanmar’s Assistance Association for Political Prisoners that as of Wednesday, some 2,729 people had been arrested, charged or sentenced since the coup and an estimated 536 have been killed.

The Security Council adopted a presidential statement – one step below a resolution – on March 10 calling for a reversal of the coup, strongly condemning the violence against peaceful protesters and calling for “utmost restraint” by the military. It stressed the need to uphold “democratic institutions and processes” and called for the immediate release of detained government leaders including Ms Suu Kyi and President Win Myint.

The statement is weaker than the initial draft circulated by the UK, which would have condemned the coup and threatened “possible measures under the UN Charter” – UN language for sanctions – “should the situation deteriorate further”.

Stressing the urgency of action, Ms Schraner Burgener told council members she feared serious international crimes and violations of international law by the military “will become bloodier as the commander-in-chief seems determined to solidify his unlawful grip on power by force”.

“Mediation requires dialogue, but Myanmar’s military has shut its doors to most of the world,” she said at the virtual meeting. “It appears the military would only engage when it feels they are able to contain the situation through repression and terror.”

Schraner Burgener warned that if “we wait only for when they are ready to talk” a “bloodbath is imminent”.

The UN envoy called on those with access to the military, known as the Tatmadaw, to let them know the damage to Myanmar’s reputation and the threat it poses not only to its citizens but to the security of neighbouring countries.

“A robust international response requires a unified regional position, especially with neighbouring countries leveraging their influence towards stability in Myanmar,” Ms Schraner Burgener said, adding she plans to visit the region, hopefully next week.

Ms Schraner Burgener said intensification of fighting in Kayin state had sent thousands fleeing to neighbouring Thailand and that conflict in Kachin state with the Kachin Independence Army near the Chinese border intensified “to its highest point this year”.

Armed ethnic groups on Myanmar’s eastern and western borders are also increasingly speaking out against “the brutality of the military”, she said.

British Ambassador Barbara Woodward, who called for the council meeting, said afterwards that “we will continue to discuss next steps with other council members” to prevent the military “from perpetuating this crisis”.

“We want to consider all measures that are at our disposal,” she said, which include sanctions.